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My view on crypto investments

Dear people,

I would like to share my view on the current state of crypto currency markets.

I do not think that this is the right time attack crypto markets with a "quant" approach trying to identify inefficiencies in or between cryptos (I am not talking about structural inefficiencies that can be exploited like cross exchange arbitrage etc.)

Inefficiencies that we used to seek in settled assets require some level of macro ground (things like economic purpose, history, role in the value chain of the asset to be modeled) which helps us come up with some hypothesis on possible future behavior. Additionally, pure data driven approaches is a challenge due to the amount and quality of available data.

Looking at the current state of crypto markets, I see this more as a value betting opportunity than an inefficiency seeking opportunity. I prefer seeding, which is betting on a set of cryptos after some kind of filtering and keeping the same amount of equity on market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum.

One of the filters I use for betting is the ratio of developers to days on market. Because I believe in the power of ecosystem.


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